Volatility the Carry Trade and The Macro Trader
If you are into global macro you trade everything. You trade stocks, bonds, commodities, and even currencies. Essentially you are looking to trade anything that presents a great risk to reward opportunity that is not correlated with your other trades.
You don't just trade different asset classes but even different strategies within an asset class. If you trade bonds you will have some directional trades on, some spread trades, and some arbitrage trades. All of his is to further diversify your returns stream. You can do the same types of things in every asset class which makes your streams of returns very uncorrelated.
One of the best places for macro traders to really differentiate themselves from other categories is in the currency carry trade. While most people understand what a directional bet is, one in which you buy or short something and if it goes up or down you make money, many do not understand carry.
To utilize the carry trade you go long a high yielding currency and go short the lower yielding currency. You can make money in one or two of two different ways. If the currencies remain flat you will earn the interest rate differential. You can also make money by being right on the directional part of the trade, that being if they move in your direction.
Using leverage you can really juice your returns in the carry trade. For instance if you are earning a three percent yield from the differential then you can earn thirty by being levered up ten times. If you lever up twenty times you will earn sixty percent. While these gains sound great they do come with great risk. You knew this couldn't be that easy.
No, it is not. Yes, you can get the carry but if there is excess or even normal volatility depending upon the leverage being used you will blow up in traders terms. If this is the case, and it is, then what should a trade be focusing on when they are trying to execute the carry trade? Well the obvious answer is volatility.
You can use several different methods to estimate volatility. You can use the standard volatility index for the SP500. While it is designed and used primarily for equities it is a good estimate of volatility for most asset classes. Now days you can just use a currency volatility index like those from JP Morgan or many of the other investment banks.
If you are an active macro trader that is using the carry trade then you should incorporate a volatility filter. If you are not using the carry trade then you are missing out on a great way to diversify as well as deliver more consistent returns. - 23311
You don't just trade different asset classes but even different strategies within an asset class. If you trade bonds you will have some directional trades on, some spread trades, and some arbitrage trades. All of his is to further diversify your returns stream. You can do the same types of things in every asset class which makes your streams of returns very uncorrelated.
One of the best places for macro traders to really differentiate themselves from other categories is in the currency carry trade. While most people understand what a directional bet is, one in which you buy or short something and if it goes up or down you make money, many do not understand carry.
To utilize the carry trade you go long a high yielding currency and go short the lower yielding currency. You can make money in one or two of two different ways. If the currencies remain flat you will earn the interest rate differential. You can also make money by being right on the directional part of the trade, that being if they move in your direction.
Using leverage you can really juice your returns in the carry trade. For instance if you are earning a three percent yield from the differential then you can earn thirty by being levered up ten times. If you lever up twenty times you will earn sixty percent. While these gains sound great they do come with great risk. You knew this couldn't be that easy.
No, it is not. Yes, you can get the carry but if there is excess or even normal volatility depending upon the leverage being used you will blow up in traders terms. If this is the case, and it is, then what should a trade be focusing on when they are trying to execute the carry trade? Well the obvious answer is volatility.
You can use several different methods to estimate volatility. You can use the standard volatility index for the SP500. While it is designed and used primarily for equities it is a good estimate of volatility for most asset classes. Now days you can just use a currency volatility index like those from JP Morgan or many of the other investment banks.
If you are an active macro trader that is using the carry trade then you should incorporate a volatility filter. If you are not using the carry trade then you are missing out on a great way to diversify as well as deliver more consistent returns. - 23311
About the Author:
If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader It is a weekly global macro trading advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.
posted by Mr. Forex at
3:35 AM
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