One Way To Choose A Forex Signal Provider - Let's Examine Draw Downs

By Tom K Kearns

So, you are in the market for a third party signal provider. The maximum draw down of the trader is your first step in the selection process. To define the maximum draw down - this is the gap between the ultimate amount of loss between the absolute top and the absolute bottom. Included in this number is also the open positions, but not included is the account margin necessary to keep you away from a margin call. How much is too much of a draw down you may well ask. Of course, like many answers to many questions, it is - That depends. Many, many issues need to be examined when coming up with an answer to this very important question. It goes without saying that a person with an account in the high thousands of dollars can stand more of a draw down than a person with a much smaller account. So, that being said, what are some other things to consider?

You have the draw down number. How was that number derived? If the draw down number seems intolerable to you but other factors make the trader a good bet, examine the number of positions the trader opens at a single time. Say he opens 5 trades on whatever pair at one time, right away you can cut their recorded draw down by 5. If a trader's number of open trades is limited, that alone severely reduces the entire draw down figure.

You will on occasion discover a trader with a fine track record with the exception of one large meltdown suffered when just one trade ran amok for days unnoticed. This will give a distorted picture due to the abnormal draw down and doesn't mean much in relation to the trader's true ability. You may have stumbled on the type who can't tell when or if a trade has a shot at coming back to an even status. Or, the poor chap could possibly have the lousy luck of losing his connection to the internet at some very bad times. To keep this sort of thing from happening to you, set your own stops with the trader. Do make sure though that the stops you put on his trades are only those that are well out of reasonable trading range.

At this point, we are going to visit again our original question. Now that you have accomplished all you can to limit draw down, I will caution you by saying any amount over 35% of your total account equity is way overdoing it. If you let yourself become in a situation where a 50% plus loss is incurred, coming back from it would involve some extremely risky behavior. A 50% loss demands a 100% gain just to get back on the level.

When considering draw down you should also look at how much history is available on that trader. If he only has 3 weeks of history than chances are that his largest draw down is yet to come. If he has 50 or 100 weeks of history he has probably already hit some rough patches and you can get a better idea of how rough the rough patches are for that particular trader.

Also remember to constantly monitor your traders on both a live and demo account. If their draw down gets out of hand it may be time to reevaluate or completely remove that trader from your portfolio. - 23311

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