CFD Trading Strategy - Ascending Wedges Downside Breakout
Traditional thinking suggests that the ascending wedge is most profitable when traded short. In reality this conclusion is not supported by the evidence. An ascending wedge is formed when the price action is contained within two lines. Both the bottom line and the top line slope up, but the bottom line has a steeper slope meeting the top line.
Ascending Wedges, Marginally Profitable
The ascending wedge breaks up more than it breaks down with downside breaks only occurring in 32% of the patterns. A downside breakout is profitable 42% of the time delivering an average profit of just 0.02% in 8 days, it is barely profitable. As with other patterns it can be improved with the addition of filters.
Specific Setups to Improve Profitability
Surprisingly short breakouts work well in rising markets so the market, as well as the stock, should be rising or consolidating. The best results are achieved trading ascending wedges when the sector is falling or consolidating. So if the trend of the sector turns down, this sets up the best short trades.
Breakouts can occur anywhere along the length of the ascending wedge pattern. The best pattern length is between 5 and 30 days, so very short term patterns and very long term patterns are best avoided.
Ensure that the volume is supportive of the breakout, i.e. volume as the stock falls is greater than volume as the stock rises. Avoid patterns that have two closes the same prior to the breakout as this is often a sign of an illiquid stock. Lower highs or lower lows prior to the breakout produce better results.
Ascending Wedges Profitable Sometimes
Incorporating these filters when selecting ascending wedges to trade short, dramatically improves the results. It also significantly reduces the number of trades to 74 from 1275, before the filters are applied. With an average return per trade of 1.46% in 10 days and a hit rate of 48% ascending wedges can be profitable when traded short, but selecting the right patterns can be challenging.
Note: Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23311
Ascending Wedges, Marginally Profitable
The ascending wedge breaks up more than it breaks down with downside breaks only occurring in 32% of the patterns. A downside breakout is profitable 42% of the time delivering an average profit of just 0.02% in 8 days, it is barely profitable. As with other patterns it can be improved with the addition of filters.
Specific Setups to Improve Profitability
Surprisingly short breakouts work well in rising markets so the market, as well as the stock, should be rising or consolidating. The best results are achieved trading ascending wedges when the sector is falling or consolidating. So if the trend of the sector turns down, this sets up the best short trades.
Breakouts can occur anywhere along the length of the ascending wedge pattern. The best pattern length is between 5 and 30 days, so very short term patterns and very long term patterns are best avoided.
Ensure that the volume is supportive of the breakout, i.e. volume as the stock falls is greater than volume as the stock rises. Avoid patterns that have two closes the same prior to the breakout as this is often a sign of an illiquid stock. Lower highs or lower lows prior to the breakout produce better results.
Ascending Wedges Profitable Sometimes
Incorporating these filters when selecting ascending wedges to trade short, dramatically improves the results. It also significantly reduces the number of trades to 74 from 1275, before the filters are applied. With an average return per trade of 1.46% in 10 days and a hit rate of 48% ascending wedges can be profitable when traded short, but selecting the right patterns can be challenging.
Note: Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23311
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge is a private trader and created the website LearnCFDs.com Ways to Make Serious Money With A Small Investment
posted by Mr. Forex at
2:21 AM
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